GPT2w模型在中国大陆地区的精度分析     

陈发源  王新志  金双根 《南京气象学院学报》2021,13(2):145-153

全球气温气压（GPT）系列模型可用于计算全球任意位置的气温、气压和水汽压等各种气象参数,目前国内外广泛使用且精度较高的全球气温气压模型主要为GPT2w模型.本文利用2012—2016年中国大陆地区102个国家气象站实测的气温、气压和水汽压数据对GPT2w模型进行精度分析.结果表明：GPT2w模型的气温误差均值为-0.45 ℃,标准偏差均值为10.04 ℃;气压误差均值为2.05 hPa,标准偏差均值为6.55 hPa;水汽压误差均值为0.11 hPa,标准偏差均值为6.15 hPa.总体而言,GPT2w模型计算出的气温、气压和水汽压值在中国大陆大部分地区具有较高的精度.同时,三种气象参数的精度在中国大陆地区分布不均匀,不同纬度区间存在一定差异且以年为周期均具有明显的季节性.  相似文献   

中国长三角地区PM2.5时空分布数值模拟研究     

许敏 《气象与环境学报》2021,37(4):33-39

利用第三代空气质量预报模式LOTOS-EUROS(Long Term Ozone Simulation-European Operational Smog)对2018年中国长三角地区细颗粒物(PM_2.5)浓度的时空分布进行数值模拟,通过对比模拟结果与地面观测值,验证模式对PM_2.5长期特征模拟的合理性并探讨长三角地区PM_2.5的时空分布特征。结果表明：LOTOS-EUROS模式可以较好地再现中国长三角地区PM_2.5浓度的时空分布特征,监测站点观测值和模拟值的整体相关系数达到0.64,可以用于长三角地区细颗粒物的模拟。长三角地区PM_2.5浓度呈冬高夏低,西北高东南低的特征。冬季PM_2.5浓度高值出现在长三角地区的西北部,安徽省等地区的浓度水平最大值可达到160 μg·m^-3;春季和秋季PM_2.5浓度的高值集中在30°N以北、120°E以西地区,浓度为40-80 μg·m^-3;而夏季PM_2.5浓度水平大幅度降低,大部分地区维持在20-40 μg·m^-3,低值中心出现在长三角地区东南部沿海城市,低于10 μg·m^-3,最低值可达5 μg·m^-3。  相似文献   

山西省地下流体观测井地下水类型综合判定     

姚林鹏  吕芳  宫静芝 《地震地磁观测与研究》2022,43(2):115-120

为提升对山西省地下流体观测井承压性的进一步认识,以位于该省北、中、南部的朔州井、静乐井、祁县井、洪洞井和东郭井为研究对象,选取水位、气压观测数据,并利用井水位的理论固体潮数据,分别对井水位进行气压的阶跃响应函数计算、FFT频谱和潮汐相位响应分析,综合判定地下流体观测井—含水层类型,结果表明,5口观测井地下水埋藏类型均为半承压水。  相似文献   

Response characteristics of plunge pool slabs of Xiaxiluodu Hydropower Station to flood discharge pulsating-pressure under valley deformation conditions     

《地震研究进展（英文）》2022,2(4):100136

The key problem of the energy dissipation scheme of the arch dam body flood discharge and plunge pool below the dam is the stability problem of the plunge pool slab. As the protection structure of the underwater bed, the plunge pool slab bears the continuous impact of high-speed water flow. The hourly average dynamic water pressure on the slab is one of the main loads directly affecting the stability of the slab and is the main factor causing its erosion destruction. After the impoundment of the Xiluodu Hydropower Station, the measuring line of valley width in the plunge pool area has been continuously shrinking. By 2020, the cumulative shrinking value is about 80 ​mm. In light of the general background condition of valley shrinkage, daily inspection, annual detailed inspection, underwater inspection and drainage inspection of the plunge pool found that the plunge pool has experienced different degrees of damage, which greatly influences the long-term safety stability of the plunge pool. In this paper, the prototype observation data of flood discharge is used as the input load of pulsating-pressure, and the stress and displacement distribution of the plunge pool structure under the vibration load of flood discharge is analyzed under the condition that the stress and strain state of the plunge pool is changed under the influence of valley displacement. The results show that the stress, strain, and displacement distribution of the plunge pool are mainly caused by valley deformation, the vibration caused by flood discharge is little in influence, and the impact effect of deep hole flood discharge tongue on the plunge pool slab is weak.  相似文献   

Under the surface: Pressure-induced planetary-scale waves,volcanic lightning,and gaseous clouds caused by the submarine eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano     

David A. Yuen  Melissa A. Scruggs  Frank J. Spera  Yingcai Zheng  Hao Hu  Stephen R. McNutt  Glenn Thompson  Kyle Mandli  Barry R. Keller  Songqiao Shawn Wei  Zhigang Peng  Zili Zhou  Francesco Mulargia  Yuichiro Tanioka 《地震研究进展（英文）》2022,2(3):100134

We present a narrative of the eruptive events culminating in the cataclysmic January 15, 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano by synthesizing diverse preliminary seismic, volcanological, sound wave, and lightning data available within the first few weeks after the eruption occurred. The first hour of eruptive activity produced fast-propagating tsunami waves, long-period seismic waves, loud audible sound waves, infrasonic waves, exceptionally intense volcanic lightning and an unsteady volcanic plume that transiently reached—at 58 ?km—the Earth's mesosphere. Energetic seismic signals were recorded worldwide and the globally stacked seismogram showed episodic seismic events within the most intense periods of phreatoplinian activity, and they correlated well with the infrasound pressure waveform recorded in Fiji. Gravity wave signals were strong enough to be observed over the entire planet in just the first few hours, with some circling the Earth multiple times subsequently. These large-amplitude, long-wavelength atmospheric disturbances come from the Earth's atmosphere being forced by the magmatic mixture of tephra, melt and gasses emitted by the unsteady but quasi-continuous eruption from 0402±1–1800 UTC on January 15, 2022. Atmospheric forcing lasted much longer than rupturing from large earthquakes recorded on modern instruments, producing a type of shock wave that originated from the interaction between compressed air and ambient (wavy) sea surface. This scenario differs from conventional ideas of earthquake slip, landslides, or caldera collapse-generated tsunami waves because of the enormous (～1000x) volumetric change due to the supercritical nature of volatiles associated with the hot, volatile-rich phreatoplinian plume. The time series of plume altitude can be translated to volumetric discharge and mass flow rate. For an eruption duration of ～12 ?h, the eruptive volume and mass are estimated at 1.9 ?km³ and ～2 900 ?Tg, respectively, corresponding to a VEI of 5–6 for this event. The high frequency and intensity of lightning was enhanced by the production of fine ash due to magma—seawater interaction with concomitant high charge per unit mass and the high pre-eruptive concentration of dissolved volatiles. Analysis of lightning flash frequencies provides a rapid metric for plume activity and eruption magnitude. Many aspects of this eruption await further investigation by multidisciplinary teams. It represents a unique opportunity for fundamental research regarding the complex, non-linear behavior of high energetic volcanic eruptions and attendant phenomena, with critical implications for hazard mitigation, volcano forecasting, and first-response efforts in future disasters.  相似文献   

基于声波测试法对鹰滩页岩各向异性分析     

李卉 《地质与勘探》2022,58(6):1291-1299

页岩储层通常呈薄层状结构,一般认为其岩石力学参数具有横向各向同性,而其各向异性受围压（CP）、含水率和总有机质含量（TOC）等多种因素的影响。本文对不同围压下的鹰滩（Eagle Ford）页岩进行超声波波速进行测试实验,研究围压对鹰滩页岩波速及岩石力学各向异性的影响。实验结果表明,鹰滩页岩属于弱各向异性多孔介质,并具有横向各向同性、垂向各向异性的性质。纵波（P波）和横波（S波）波速随围压的增大而增大,特别是在低围压范围内增幅显著,同时围压增大会降低纵波和横波的各向异性,纵波各向异性比横波各向异性对围压更敏感。对鹰滩页岩各向异性分析为页岩储层压裂过程中裂缝的起裂和延伸规律研究提供了必要的力学参数。  相似文献   

●●以下文章网络预出版（在线出版）于2022年12月20日，预计刊于《地质论评》2023年第69卷第1期(2023年1月15日发行纸质版）或2023年第69卷第2期（2023年3月15日发行纸质版）     

朱炜  张艳  韩润生  王磊  佘敏  魏平堂 《地质论评》2022,68(6):2022112011-2022112012

元素富集机制的研究是重现成矿过程和查明成矿机制的基础,有助于深化对矿床的认识,为找矿提供理论依据。本文总结了近年来关于铅锌元素的迁移与沉淀机制的研究及其应用,包括3种铅锌迁移沉淀模式,4种含铅锌流体驱动模式,铅锌的迁移形式及其沉淀机制;同时简述了我国高温高压实验的发展历程以及4种高温高压模拟实验方法。重点介绍了4种高温高压实验模拟方法及其研究现状：① 高压釜实验;② 热液金刚石压腔—激光拉曼实验;③ 熔融毛细硅管—激光拉曼实验;④ 计算机模拟实验。从封闭—平衡—静止到（半）开放—非平衡—流动、淬火分析到原位观察,应是今后高温高压实验的发展方向。以地质特征为基础,采用高温高压成岩成矿模拟实验结合计算机模拟,精细刻画成矿过程并揭示元素富集机制不仅是解决实际地质问题的有效手段,更是很长一段时间内要为之努力的方向。  相似文献   

基于离散元方法的不同挡墙变位模式下有限土体主动土压力研究     

张恒志  徐长节  何寨兵  黄展军  何小辉 《岩土力学》2022,(1):257-267

为研究挡墙变位模式以及墙后填土宽度对无黏性有限土体主动土压力的影响,在不同墙后填土宽度条件下分别开展了挡墙平动(T)模式、绕墙底转动(RB)模式以及绕墙顶转动(RT)模式的离散元模拟。根据离散元模拟结果对主动土压力、墙后土体破坏模式以及应力状态进行了分析。研究结果表明:挡墙变位模式和墙后填土宽度的变化使得土体破坏模式和应力状态发生变化,引起主动土压力大小及分布的差异。T与RB模式滑动土楔中内摩擦角调动值会相对初始值增加,且T模式滑动土楔中会出现小主应力拱。RT模式较为特殊,在填土宽度较小时,其应力状态与T模式相似;在填土宽度较大时,滑动土楔上部会出现内摩擦角调动值相对初始值减小的区域,并出现大主应力拱。  相似文献   

基于孔压静力触探试验的水运工程土分类方法研究     

杜宇  刘松玉  祝刘文  邹海峰  蔡国军 《岩土力学》2022,43(5):1353-1363

土的工程分类是工程勘察和设计应用的关键问题之一。基于孔压静力触探测试（piezocone penetration test,简称CPTU）原位测试参数进行土分类是高效实用的方法。国内外现有分类方法的名称及标准与我国《水运工程岩土勘察规范》（JTS 133－2013）不符合。因此,建立基于CPTU原位测试参数、符合我国行业标准的土工程分类方法具有重要工程意义。在收集大量国内外水运工程CPTU测试资料的基础上,对比分析了616个间距小于5 m的CPTU测试孔和相应钻孔取样与室内土工试验成果。选择国内外7种常用的CPTU土分类图进行应用比较,发现这些土分类图所采用的应力修正计算方法在考虑浅层土体的有效上覆应力修正时存在一定的缺陷,通过引入新的应力修正方法和修正土分类边界线,建立了适合我国水运工程的CPTU土分类方法。对比应用分析表明,该分类图能够准确地进行水运工程土类划分,尤其适合于软土、粉细砂和中粗砂的划分,可作为我国水运工程的土工程分类方法。  相似文献   

T型巷道中突出煤−瓦斯两相流动力学试验研究     

许江  程亮  魏仁忠  彭守建  周斌  杨海林 《岩土力学》2022,43(6):1423-1433

为了进一步探究突出煤−瓦斯两相流在不同巷道布置方式下的动力学行为,利用多场耦合煤矿动力灾害大型物理模拟试验系统,开展了T型巷道布置方式下的煤与瓦斯突出试验,得出了两相流运移过程中冲击力与静压的演化特征。结果表明：直线主巷内冲击力随时间呈多峰值震荡衰减趋势,体现了突出过程的脉冲特性,且距突出口越近,冲击力震荡次数越多;分岔两侧支巷内冲击力突出前期呈现两种演化趋势,其一是迅速增大至峰值后缓慢下降,其二是缓慢增大后缓慢下降;距分岔结构中心左侧1 500 mm处出现了较大冲击力值,出现重度危险区域,而右侧则在距500 mm和1 900 mm处。利用突出运移动态图像将整个过程分为单相气流和两相流两个阶段,单相气流阶段中分岔后支巷的冲击力就迅速上升至峰值,而在两相流阶段分岔前主巷的冲击力上升至最高值,存在分岔后冲击力峰值高于分岔前的现象。突出过程中,巷道壁面上静压值总体偏低;静压随时间呈间歇式波动发展,且其峰值点自煤层由近及远呈先增大后减小的趋势;距突出口越远,直线主巷内静压出现峰值的时刻越滞后;分岔支巷内静压左右两侧的演化近似,随着时间推进,分岔结构前后静压衰减逐渐增大。  相似文献